Adjacency matrix
Rows are sources, columns are targets. Cell depth encodes the median NAVAR causal score across the three-seed ensemble. The default set is the consensus graph — edges retained in all three seeds. Select any node label to inspect its neighborhood.
Retained edges
Every edge in the majority-retained set, with seed retention, ensemble score statistics, and consensus status. Scores are median [min – max] across seeds.
Effect curves
For each consensus edge: the estimated effect of moving the source across its observed range, evaluated in three democracy regimes (terciles of the outcome). Both axes are in standardized units.
Stability and impulse responses
Nodal influence trajectories (λ paths)
Spectral radius ρ(τ)
Impulse responses
Country trajectories
These are model-implied trajectories, not predictions. The band is the ensemble min–max across three seeds; the grey dashed line is a persistence reference (last observed value carried forward). Horizons beyond 5 years are unvalidated and drawn faded.
What the numbers mean
Plain-language explanations of every method and quantity in this portal. The same text is used by the results assistant. Dotted-underlined terms throughout the portal show these explanations on hover.